Strategy

Buy "yes" on KXBTCD "or above" contracts ~1% below current BTC price, 30 minutes before hourly expiry. Collect nickels when BTC doesn't crash.

Backtest Result — 1% Below Current

46 / 46 wins (100%)

Over 55 hourly events (~2.5 days of data), buying "yes" at the strike ~1% below settlement won every time.

• Avg entry cost: 98.7¢ → avg profit: 1.3¢/contract
• Best trade: entry at 90¢ → 10¢ profit (KXBTCD-26FEB1521)
• Total P&L across 46 trades: +61¢ ($0.61)
• At 100 contracts/trade: ~$31/day, but one loss = ~$99

Next Steps

• Backtest at 0.5% below (tighter, riskier, but contracts may be cheaper)
• Look at trade prices at T-30min specifically (not just last traded price)
• Longer history — need more events to see a loss and measure tail risk
• Paper trade: monitor live contracts without placing trades

Key Discovery

Kalshi has two BTC series: KXBTC ($250 range buckets) and KXBTCD (above/below thresholds). Steven trades KXBTCD — the "or above" contracts.