Kalshi BTC Trader

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Kalshi BTC Trader

Volatility pricing play on KXBTCD — Updated 2026-04-12 13:15 UTC

TRADING PAUSED — collecting data only (snapshots + what-ifs)
$3.46
Total P&L
41
Wins
8
Losses
83.7%
Win Rate
0
Pending
108
Filtered Out

Guardrails

Volatile Hours (skip 14-18 UTC) ACTIVE
Momentum Filter (require BTC >= +0.1% 1hr) ACTIVE
Circuit Breaker (4 consecutive losses) ARMED (1/4)
24hr Spend Cap ($20 rolling) ACTIVE
Filtered out breakdown 65x momentum, 11x no_contracts, 32x volatile_hour

Recent Trades

Time (UTC)ContractPriceQtyResultP&LRunning
2026-02-26T20:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2616-T67499.99 78¢ 1 LOSS -78¢ -346¢
2026-02-26T19:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2615-T66999.99 90¢ 1 WIN +10¢ -268¢
2026-02-26T10:15:32 KXBTCD-26FEB2606-T68249.99 88¢ 1 WIN +12¢ -278¢
2026-02-26T04:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2600-T68249.99 86¢ 1 WIN +14¢ -290¢
2026-02-26T01:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2521-T68249.99 77¢ 1 WIN +23¢ -304¢
2026-02-25T22:15:32 KXBTCD-26FEB2518-T68749.99 87¢ 1 LOSS -87¢ -327¢
2026-02-25T21:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2517-T68499.99 89¢ 1 WIN +11¢ -240¢
2026-02-25T13:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2509-T65749.99 83¢ 1 WIN +17¢ -251¢
2026-02-25T09:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2505-T65249.99 89¢ 1 WIN +11¢ -268¢
2026-02-25T02:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2422-T65749.99 87¢ 1 WIN +13¢ -279¢
2026-02-25T01:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2421-T64749.99 90¢ 1 WIN +10¢ -292¢
2026-02-25T01:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2421-T64999.99 83¢ 1 WIN +17¢ -302¢
2026-02-24T19:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2415-T63999.99 87¢ 1 WIN +13¢ -319¢
2026-02-24T07:15:32 KXBTCD-26FEB2403-T62999.99 84¢ 1 WIN +16¢ -332¢
2026-02-24T05:15:32 KXBTCD-26FEB2401-T63249.99 76¢ 1 LOSS -76¢ -348¢
2026-02-23T22:15:32 KXBTCD-26FEB2318-T64749.99 78¢ 1 LOSS -78¢ -272¢
2026-02-23T10:15:32 KXBTCD-26FEB2306-T65999.99 90¢ 1 WIN +10¢ -194¢
2026-02-23T07:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2303-T65499.99 87¢ 1 WIN +13¢ -204¢
2026-02-23T04:15:33 KXBTCD-26FEB2300-T64749.99 90¢ 1 WIN +10¢ -217¢
2026-02-23T03:15:32 KXBTCD-26FEB2223-T64499.99 90¢ 1 WIN +10¢ -227¢
2026-02-18T13:28:35 KXBTCD-26FEB1809-T66999.99 98¢ 1 WIN +2¢ -237¢
2026-02-18T13:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1809-T67249.99 85¢ 1 LOSS -85¢ -239¢
2026-02-18T12:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1808-T67249.99 96¢ 1 WIN +4¢ -154¢
2026-02-18T10:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1806-T67749.99 95¢ 1 WIN +5¢ -158¢
2026-02-18T09:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1805-T67999.99 88¢ 1 WIN +12¢ -163¢
2026-02-18T08:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1804-T67999.99 90¢ 1 WIN +10¢ -175¢
2026-02-18T07:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1803-T67499.99 94¢ 1 WIN +6¢ -185¢
2026-02-18T05:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1801-T67499.99 98¢ 1 WIN +2¢ -191¢
2026-02-18T02:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1722-T66999.99 93¢ 1 WIN +7¢ -193¢
2026-02-18T00:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1720-T67249.99 92¢ 1 WIN +8¢ -200¢
2026-02-17T23:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1719-T67249.99 92¢ 1 WIN +8¢ -208¢
2026-02-17T22:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1718-T67249.99 98¢ 1 WIN +2¢ -216¢
2026-02-17T21:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1717-T67249.99 94¢ 1 WIN +6¢ -218¢
2026-02-17T20:28:35 KXBTCD-26FEB1716-T67249.99 96¢ 1 WIN +4¢ -224¢
2026-02-17T19:28:35 KXBTCD-26FEB1715-T67249.99 98¢ 1 WIN +2¢ -228¢
2026-02-17T19:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1715-T67499.99 95¢ 1 WIN +5¢ -230¢
2026-02-17T14:28:36 KXBTCD-26FEB1710-T66999.99 98¢ 1 LOSS -98¢ -235¢
2026-02-17T14:28:35 KXBTCD-26FEB1710-T67249.99 98¢ 1 LOSS -98¢ -137¢
2026-02-17T14:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1710-T67499.99 93¢ 1 LOSS -93¢ -39¢
2026-02-17T13:28:35 KXBTCD-26FEB1709-T67499.99 98¢ 1 WIN +2¢ +54¢
2026-02-17T13:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1709-T67749.99 90¢ 1 WIN +10¢ +52¢
2026-02-17T12:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1708-T67749.99 98¢ 1 WIN +2¢ +42¢
2026-02-17T11:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1707-T67499.99 92¢ 1 WIN +8¢ +40¢
2026-02-17T09:28:35 KXBTCD-26FEB1705-T67499.99 98¢ 1 WIN +2¢ +32¢
2026-02-17T09:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1705-T67749.99 93¢ 1 WIN +7¢ +30¢
2026-02-17T08:28:35 KXBTCD-26FEB1704-T67999.99 95¢ 1 WIN +5¢ +23¢
2026-02-17T07:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1703-T67999.99 88¢ 1 WIN +12¢ +18¢
2026-02-17T06:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1702-T67999.99 98¢ 1 WIN +2¢ +6¢
2026-02-17T04:28:34 KXBTCD-26FEB1700-T68249.99 96¢ 1 WIN +4¢ +4¢

Filtered Events (Guardrail Log)

Time (UTC)ReasonDetails
2026-02-27T18:15:32 volatile_hour hour=18, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2714-T65249.99', 'ask': 86, 'profit': 14}]
2026-02-27T17:15:32 volatile_hour hour=17, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2713-T65249.99', 'ask': 79, 'profit': 21}]
2026-02-27T16:15:32 volatile_hour hour=16, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2712-T65499.99', 'ask': 87, 'profit': 13}]
2026-02-27T15:15:32 volatile_hour hour=15, whatif_contracts=2, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2711-T65749.99', 'ask': 76, 'profit': 24}, {'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2711-T65499.99', 'ask': 89, 'profit': 11}]
2026-02-27T14:15:32 volatile_hour hour=14, whatif_contracts=2, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2710-T65999.99', 'ask': 77, 'profit': 23}, {'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2710-T65749.99', 'ask': 90, 'profit': 10}]
2026-02-27T13:15:32 momentum btc_price=66015.33107948232, momentum=0.03, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2709-T65749.99', 'ask': 80, 'profit': 20}]
2026-02-27T12:15:32 momentum btc_price=66001.86445272587, momentum=-1.053, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2708-T65749.99', 'ask': 78, 'profit': 22}]
2026-02-27T11:15:32 momentum btc_price=66739.38510334451, momentum=-0.286, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2707-T66249.99', 'ask': 89, 'profit': 11}]
2026-02-27T10:15:32 momentum btc_price=66930.86937952327, momentum=-1.602, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2706-T66499.99', 'ask': 84, 'profit': 16}]
2026-02-27T09:15:32 momentum btc_price=67961.9173967154, momentum=0.06, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2705-T67749.99', 'ask': 84, 'profit': 16}]
2026-02-27T08:15:32 no_contracts event=KXBTCD-26FEB2704
2026-02-27T07:15:32 momentum btc_price=67661.10200735011, momentum=-0.015, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2703-T67499.99', 'ask': 82, 'profit': 18}]
2026-02-27T06:15:32 momentum btc_price=67677.44041890673, momentum=-0.28, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2702-T67499.99', 'ask': 83, 'profit': 17}]
2026-02-27T05:15:32 momentum btc_price=67875.92652609423, momentum=-0.08, whatif_contracts=0, whatif=[]
2026-02-27T04:15:32 no_contracts event=KXBTCD-26FEB2700
2026-02-27T03:15:32 momentum btc_price=67145.03268208989, momentum=-0.308, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2623-T66999.99', 'ask': 78, 'profit': 22}]
2026-02-27T02:15:32 no_contracts event=KXBTCD-26FEB2622
2026-02-27T01:15:32 momentum btc_price=66985.25596638133, momentum=-0.54, whatif_contracts=1, whatif=[{'ticker': 'KXBTCD-26FEB2621-T66749.99', 'ask': 80, 'profit': 20}]
2026-02-27T00:15:32 momentum btc_price=67350.68205104151, momentum=-0.257, whatif_contracts=0, whatif=[]
2026-02-26T23:15:32 momentum btc_price=67538.30971668058, momentum=-0.015, whatif_contracts=0, whatif=[]